The best salespeople help people to choose by creating easy options and one of the most effective ways to do this is by
As promised, we will be defining our first state-space model in this article, the deterministic level model. It is the simplest one that we could possibly design. So simple that we can’t solve any real problem with it. Nonetheless, it is a state-space model. It belongs to the local level models bucket of the state space models. In our current context, the level is equivalent to what an intercept is for linear regression. This is why we call it deterministic: it means that the level is static — i.e., applied globally to all time points.
Sorted 3 takes all of the best things from your to-do app regulars and combines them with a simple but effective time-blocking experience. Sorted says that the popular to-do app, Things 3’s user interface experience, inspired some of their design ideas. But where Sorted excels is in ultimately helping to promote scheduling as a positive daily routine.
The beauty of this phrase is that if people agree they haven’t gotten about to it you can dig deeper by asking them what’s really holding them back. Whereas if they come back with “Yes, we have looked your proposal over!” you can respond by saying, “Great, let’s get started.”
Whether you are waiting for a co-worker to get a document back to you or following up with a potential client, we’ve all experienced that awkward feeling of requesting to get a status update.
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e for customers and suppliers, we are there to support and maintain. On our platform, the only apps we have any amount of stake in are popular third-party applications without third party maintenance (so we do it for them) or apps developed by employees who have no impact on the store itself and are hidden behind a developer account like everyone else. It’s an easy line to cross but it’s important not to.The time-blocking method’s fundamental vision is to know that you have something scheduled for every waking hour of your day. I ran into a few problems trying to apply this method within the modern scheduling platforms. Calendars were a mess, and before, I tried apps like Todoist and Things 3. But I still felt like the only concrete way to block out my time was to use an old stock calendar app. (gross)
Can we implement this by hand? We should get an intuition first on what we are exactly doing. The simplicity of the model gives us some room to go deeper into its mechanics.
It is in the details where Sorted 3 excels. The main difference between your regular to-do apps and Sorted 3 exists in Sorted 3’s schedule tab. Upon opening the scheduling tab, you will find a place where all of your to-dos and daily tasks can come together for one of the most effective time-blocking experiences.
for t = {1,…,n}. We can see that we are making our observations dependent on the level value when t=1, keeping the latter constant for all t. The observation disturbance is denoted by ε_t (or sometimes referred to as an irregular component) at time t.
I was heartbroken about this. There was not one app known that effectively combined both to-dos and my calendar tasks into one. (At least not for a reasonable price.) That was until I stumbled upon a lesser-known app that was slowly switching its infrastructure and user base from its second app iteration into a new one, Sorted 3.
When you first open the app, you will find all of the standard to-do app functions, a place for your new to-dos to sort later (the inbox), your today view titled “schedule,” and lists and tags for organization. You will notice that the app works seamlessly; its design and user experience thought through to the last detail.
While there are many methods of scheduling, Elon Musk schedules his day by a method called time-blocking. And after being adjusted to fit your work-life balance, I have found that this method can maximize productivity. It is time-blocking that I find works best for my life when used correctly to fulfill my goals. Time-blocking is often controversial because many think that scheduling every minute of your day can lead to reduced work quality or stress. Still, I have found that it works best for me rather than not doing it and letting individual pockets of time go to waste.
Elon knows what everyone knows, that if you don’t control your time, your time ends up owning you. So if you want to manage your time, you learn to get yourself on a schedule.
Instead of using strong language like “You told me you’d get back to me on Tuesday!” pad your language with softer words like “I’m guessing you haven’t gotten around to….” According to Phil, this not only allows people to save face. But it also preemptively cuts to the heart of most people’s biggest excuse — aka “I’m sorry. I haven’t gotten around to it yet.”
This is a fundamental concept to understand how these models work. It can be very complex mathematically, but it is quite intuitive to grasp. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is a method that allows us to estimate the parameters of the probability distribution that generated a specific sample of data (for us, it is our time series).