The reality is that Ethiopians do not come in only one homogenous flavor — there are millions of citizens of mixed-herit

Running these simulations is a way to get all the pieces in place to use inferential statistics. The idea is to get lots outputs from the simulations, very much like you take random samples to study a population, and then use inferential statistics to draw conclusions about the actual phenomenon.

To prepare the inputs of the simulations you took note, during the course of a few weeks, how many times you worked from the couch, wore pajama pants and the days you felt so tired that you quickly fell asleep. Then you turned that into probabilities:

Try tossing a coin 5 times in a row. Maybe you’ll get all heads, or all tails. How sure are you that the probability of getting heads/tails is 1? Based on your 5 tosses it is, but we know that if they are truly independent tosses the probability would be close to 0.5. So there’s a lot of variance in the result from those 5 tosses.

You’ve noticed that since starting to work from home, you’ve had a harder time falling asleep at night, and even some episodes of insomnia. Although there may be several other factors, you quickly realize that you’ve just been having too much coffee altogether.

Journalism — like drama — is fueled by conflict. And without conflict, the professional know-it-all analysts and the reps for the human rights organizations would each be out of a job, but luckily for them, “business is always good.” As much as the Western media routinely go on about the strife and killing in Africa, the examples above speak of the African spirit.

I personally find it amazing that to even suggest Ethiopians of different ethnic backgrounds still have things in common, that they might still feel solidarity thanks to history, is now supposedly a “political” position — and that somehow this is biased. I’m sorry, but let me call bullshit on that. Again, whether Ethiopians let Tigray leave its union in peace or work out a new constitution has to be decided by them. How Oromia fits in has to be decided by them. And it’s not biased or partisan to wish the best for a great family of a people to work out its differences, or to have the perspective that even if new political lines are drawn on a map, that their future will still be an inter-connected one.

We can be reminded of this fact even in tragedy. According to the EHRC preliminary report on Maikadra, victims told its investigators that “other residents, who were Tigrayan themselves, helped several of them survive by shielding them in their homes, in churches and in farms.” Let’s assume for a moment that at least part of the report’s findings are true, that these accounts can and will be verified. Think about what it means. The report mentions a woman hiding 13 people in her house and then leading them to safety at a nearby farm. “She went as far as staying with them the whole night in case the group came back in search of them.” The report talks about another Tigrayan woman “who was hit on the arm with a machete while trying to wrestle a man away from attackers who set him on fire.”

You can think of each of these as the probability of success/failure event, meaning, you either wore pajama pants or not. This helps in deciding that the best distribution to model these probabilities is the Bernoulli distribution.

With this model, you’re likely to have insomnia. In fact, 57% of the days you’re going to have insomnia if you always work from the couch and wear pajama pants 3 out of 5 days of the week.

This aggregated output, can be the mean value for what you’ve modeled, like when you’re modeling temperatures, or the probability of a success/failure scenario, such as the likelihood of a team winning the Super Bowl.

Pajama pants some days you don’t feel like changing from your pajama pants. Besides making you feel more comfy, you actually feel like you haven’t really woken up. So on those days, you end up drinking an extra cup in the morning, just in case.

Working from couch On days when you spend most of time working from the couch instead of from your desk, you’re slouching more so you feel kind of sleepy all the time. On those days, you drink a cup of coffee every couple of hours.

Usually the day starts with a fresh brew that used to sit there half empty until the next day. But recently that is all gone by the end of the day! You start getting a sense that, on most days, you go over 5 cups of coffee. And for you, that’s a recipe for insomnia.

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tween Apple and Intel was more important for Intel than it could have ever possibly realized. But it wasn’t because Intel had sewn up the last of the desktop computer processor market. Instead, it was because Intel had just developed a relationship with a company that was thinking about what was coming next. And when Apple were figuring out how to power it — and by it, I’m talking about the iPhone — they came to their new partner, Intel, for first right of refusal to design the chips to do.

Creating this model opens up a lot of interesting investigations! For instance, you can continue to play around with the inputs and try to find the sweet-spot where you have as few insomnia episodes as possible!