We entirely miss a concerning large spike in missing values. Note that this spike appears to have been a temporary issue
You got that freshman? That there is a segue. The theme is still in tact and he’s painting an illustration of the people who have been the staunchest supporters of that little hand man that’s on his way out.
Now freshman, that segue from above, it continues. Yeah, that part about stimulus checks and all that — that was an aside. These are important notes. You can do this in your five minute set and kill. I promise you. But it was an aside. Because he goes back to the segue:
Behind the scenes, this test uses a time series model which dynamically adjusts to the data. The model controls for changes in trend (blue) and seasonality (purple). It then produces a well calibrated predicted range (green). This allows us to clearly identify the anomaly (red):
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ern about the culture of hatred that Trump has unleashed and the physical safety of the Black community post-election… Over the past six years, Trump has used divisive and inflammatory language to galvanize his base and perpetuate anti-Blackness. He panders to Whites who have historically benefited from racial privilege and are lashing out against any challenge to their societal advantages.According to Robin, people who allow others to continue talking without taking their own turn are generally regarded as the best conversationalists. Not only that, but people who can successfully suspend their egos are also sought after when friends or family need someone to listen without judgment.
Dave does this by giving us the set up of his neighbors, their background, their opposition to him, so we have a picture of them in our mind when he tells us of having a Zoom meeting with them.
“As human beings, we are biologically conditioned to accommodate requests for assistance. The compulsion is based upon the fact that our ancient ancestors knew that if they did not provide assistance when asked, the assistance would not be granted to them if requested at a later date.” — Robin Dreeke
The anatomy of a predicted range test, where trend (blue) and seasonality (purple) are controlled for, and a predicted interval (green) makes it clear that the most recent observation (red) is anomalous.
Putting your ego aside and focusing solely on the wants, needs, and opinions of people around you isn’t always easy. But it’s worth being mindful of. Most people don’t care nearly as much about your story as they do their own and they certainly don’t like to be “one-upped” or corrected.
I asked a friend how his writing was going and he replied that many of his recent articles had gone viral. Instead of digging in for details, however, I told him about a run I went on last year that netted similar results.
Approach each conversation as a learning opportunity. Seek out the stories of others. Remind yourself that good things happen when we prioritize our two ears over our ego.
He had that twang in his voice. You know that twang when you hear that accent like, ‘Oh, I know he doesn’t wear his mask.’ I don’t know why poor white people don’t like wearing masks. What is the problem? You wear a mask to the Klan rally, wear it to Wal-Mart too. Wear your Klan to Wal-Mart so we can all feel safe.
Don’t even wanna wear your mask ‘cause it’s oppressive. Try wearing the mask I been wearing all these years. I can’t even tell something true…unless it has a punchline behind it.
He continues that illustration by pointing out that many of these people have been living off of their stimulus checks and supporting their heroin addiction, much like the people that the late President Reagan declared war upon. There’s a theme here.
From Robin’s experience, he has found no greater tool for getting to know people than asking for assistance or being of assistance. Just make a point to make it easy for the other person to comply by making the request simple, of limited duration, and non-threatening.