Is post-COVID-19 retail future more online, pickup and showrooms?

Is post-COVID-19 retail future more online, pickup and showrooms?

KINGSPORT — Based on predictions nationally and by some local shoppers, online sales will continue at current or even higher levels as the COVID-19 pandemic wanes.

Another trend both groups predicted for in-person retail is a move toward something akin to catalog showrooms. Recall the days of Service Merchandise and Brendle’s?

And those social distancing floor markers at current retailers are here to stay and will become part of the flooring, a retail futurist says.

“I actually think more people are going to shift to online, especially people who work and have kids,” Judy Bowery of Hawkins County said.

A bargain-hunting shopper who still does in-person shopping, Bowery said that folks with young children will continue or expand the trend of curbside pickup for groceries.

Bowery said her brother’s daughter, who has four children, does Walmart curbside pickup of groceries to save money by just getting what is on the list and not having the kids add items to the grocery buggy.

Pam Shipley of Kingsport said she still shops in person but now goes early and gets out quickly.

“I got to the store early in the morning. I go early and get out,” Shipley said.

For larger appliances, she said most trips to buy result in having something shipped from a warehouse a few days or weeks later.

At the other end of the spectrum, Bowery said older people also are going and staying online for many goods.

“They’re still afraid. Is this going to start again? It a new strain going to come in,” Bowery said of their concerns.

WHAT ABOUT PERSONAL INTERACTION?

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In another NRF Show session, former PepsiCo CEO and Chairman Indra Nooyi presented an optimistic view of post-pandemic retailing.

“Consumers are dying for interaction,” Nooyi said in the Longo article when asked about when consumers will start returning to brick-and-mortar stores en masse.

“People are longing for togetherness, to shake hands, hug, high-five. Once we all get vaccinated, there will be a huge rejuvenation of retail, travel, food service, theaters, concerts. It’s going to happen, and technology will enable more things to happen in those places, but it will not replace them.”

Nooyi also said the consumer packaged goods companies must “double-down on healthier eating and protecting the environment.”

WHAT WILL FUTURE RETAIL LOOK LIKE IN STORES?
Blake Morgan, a senior contributor to Forbes.com, a customer experience futurist, author and keynote speaker, has predictions about post-COVID-19 retail.

They include the expanding and making permanent built-in distancing in store floors; and doing product placement for speed instead of encouraging people to go deeper into a store and browse.

“Many Target stores have already shifted to this (revamped product placement) model with two entrances: one for quick grab-and-go items and the other entrance and side of the store for browsable items and a more leisurely shopping experience,” Morgan wrote.

Others are using calming colors, including shades of blue and green with soft lighting; and having autonomous stores.

“The Amazon Go model of cashier-less shopping got a boost due to the pandemic, and more stores are likely to implement the technology in the future,” Morgan wrote.

“Employees only have to touch items a customer intends to purchase and do not have “to interact with traditional high-touch areas like card readers and checkout lines.”

Other predictions are more built-in drive-throughs, smaller stores, filtration and HVAC system improvements, having more outdoor space such as walking malls and more showrooms.

“Retailers will follow the lead of Ikea with separate showrooms that allow customers to see the products in a space before picking out exactly what they need or ordering it online. Showrooms bridge the gap between physical and e-commerce shopping,” he said.

The last prediction is more and better physical barriers.

“Stores will find creative ways to build physical barriers between people without hurting the personal contact and service that happens in stores,” Morgan said.

WHAT’S THE BIG PICTURE?At the 100,000-foot level, a Jan. 21 article by Don Longo, editorial director of Convenience Store News, quoted Deloitte Chief Global Economist Ira Kalish’s remarks during a session at this year’s completely virtual National Retail Federation (NRF) trade show.

Kalish told the online audience that 2020 was a “year like no other. We saw the sharpest decline ever in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the second quarter, followed by the sharpest increase in GDP in the third quarter.”

Deloitte, in its recently released 2021 Retail Industry Outlook: The New Rules of Retail, highlights five priority areas where rules need to be rewritten. Deloitte:

1. Projects substantial U.S. GDP growth in the second half of 2021 as vaccine deployment becomes widespread. However, GDP will not likely return to the pre-COVID-19 (Q1 2019) level until early 2022.

2. Found most retailers expect and will have a digital engagement increase throughout 2021 and many plan major e-commerce, contactless capabilities and store technology upgrades.

3. Found eight out of 10 retailers expect moderate to major supply chain investments in 2021.

4. Found most retail executives plan to make moderate to large investments in health and safety in 2021, with three-quarters investing in sanitation and barriers, while one-third plan to invest in employee testing capabilities.

5. Says COVID-19 created a unique opportunity for retailers to rebalance cost structures. New rules of profitability will enable retailers to explore alternative ways of engaging consumers.