Warren Buffett sees shades of 1980s crisis in todays bond market

Author : sumargencho
Publish Date : 2021-03-01 16:26:58


Warren Buffett sees shades of 1980s crisis in todays bond market

 version of this story first appeared in CNN Business' Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.

London (CNN Business)Warren Buffett is warning that the "pathetic" returns available to bond investors may encourage risky behavior.

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"Bonds are not the place to be these days," the legendary investor wrote in Berkshire Hathaway's annual letter to shareholders, lamenting that the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen 94% since September 1981.

The big picture: Interest rates have been set below zero by central banks in a handful of countries including Japan, and trillions of dollars have been printed. The idea is that doing so will encourage banks to lend and companies and governments to borrow, spurring recovery from the pandemic.

But that has pushed yields on government bonds to very low levels, wiping out returns for investors such as pension funds and insurers like Berkshire.

The latest: Yields on US government debt have risen sharply in recent weeks, reflecting expectations among investors that a robust economic recovery will take hold in the United States thanks to vaccinations and stimulus measures.

But yields are still low by historical standards, and what happens next with the bond market is very much up for debate. In his letter, Buffett leans on decades of experience to point out that low yields also come with plenty of risk.

The House Ways and Means Committee on Thursday evening voted to advance a large chunk of Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion pandemic aid package -- including the portion that would provide direct payments of $1,400 to most Americans. Here is the latest on what to know about the next round of stimulus checks.


Who could receive the $1,400 payments?
Many elements of the latest relief bill remain in flux as lawmakers mull over income thresholds.

The most recent version of the bill advanced by the Ways and Means Committee Thursday provides a $1,400 refundable tax credit that would go to individuals who made up to $75,000 and phase out completely when an individual's income level reaches $100,000. For joint filers, this payment could be up to $2,800 and would phase out between $150,000 and $200,000.

The Treasury is directed to issue this credit as an advanced payment based on 2019 or 2020 tax returns and the department is asked to conduct outreach to non-filers to inform them how to file for their advance payment, according to the committee.

"Over the last two days, the Ways and Means Committee has considered aggressive, science-based solutions that will deliver the urgent relief our country so desperately needs," Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., said in a statement Thursday evening applauding the group for advancing portions of the aid package. "From unemployment benefits to health care affordability, the work we’ve done is substantial, and it is exactly what the American people have been calling on us to do to meet this moment."

The Ways and Means Committee's advancement of the bill, however, is just one of many hurdles it has to pass before becoming law.

MORE: Unemployment rate dips to 6.3% as employers add 49,000 jobs last month
The income thresholds have been at the center of a heated debate as Republicans push for targeted aid to lower-income individuals and Democrats urge for widespread relief that at least goes to working families at the same income thresholds in the previous round of relief checks.

Earlier this week, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that discussions over the $1,400 checks remain ongoing but that President Biden would be unlikely to support any income threshold lower than $60,000.

"So his view is that a nurse, a teacher, a firefighter, who's making $60,000 shouldn't be left without any support or relief either. It's just a question of sort of where the scale-up looks like -- what it looks like in a final package, but it's still being negotiated at this point in time," Psaki said.

When pressed on Vermont Sen. Bernie Sander's assessment that it would be "absurd" to lower the threshold on who should receive the $1,400 checks, Psaki declined to answer, but said that once a threshold was found they would be glad to have the discussion.

When can people expect to see the checks?
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif, gave an estimated timeline on the status of the relief bill during her weekly press conference Thursday.

"We hope to finish our markups in committee this week and then send it to the budget committee next week for them to work their will on it, then to the rules committee, and then to the floor, and we hope to have this all done by the end of February," Pelosi said.

She added that they are aiming to have it "on the president's desk in time to offset the March 14 deadline when some unemployment benefits will expire."

When pressed, she doubled down, reiterating that the plan is to "have it passed by the end of February, so we can send it to the president's desk before the unemployment benefits expire."

If the bill is signed into law around March 14, most Americans who are eligible can likely expect to see their checks by the end of March.

MORE: Americans are 'suffering': Janet Yellen demands pandemic relief
It took approximately two weeks for direct deposits to roll out to Americans during the first round of relief through the CARES Act last March, though the wait was much longer for those who didn't file taxes or opted for another option to receive the relief -- such as via a mailed check.

During the second round of pandemic aid that included $600 checks for most Americans and was signed into law at the end of December, however, many received their payments quicker than in the past spring as the infrastructure was largely in place already to get the money out.

 

A new series starring Tyler Hoechlin as the Man of Steel and Elizabeth Tulloch as Lois Lane, Superman & Lois premieres Tuesday, February 23 on The CW with a two-hour event. The CW made the pilot episode available for press review and the embargo lifts on the day this is posted. While caution is made to keep this review as spoiler-free as possible, some elements of the TV series premiere are being discussed within.

This is certainly not my first Superman TV series to be writing about. My personal TV internet fandom began back in 1994, when I first dialed in on Prodigy, the night of the Season 2 premiere of Lois & Clark: The New Adventures of Superman, seeing posts noting the sudden recasting of Jimmy Olsen and lamenting the loss of key characters from Season 1. The Lois & Clark pilot starring Teri Hatcher and Dean Cain is still one of my favorite TV series introductions, and Teri still ranks as one of my favorite Lois Lanes. It was my love of that show that had me starting a “Krypton Club Newsletter” on AOL with a friend when I was still in high school; ultimately, some fellow fans and I wrote an “Unaired Fifth Season” of fanfiction to send out on Sundays the Fall after ABC canceled the show.

Then came Smallville. One brilliant thing that creators Alfred Gough and Miles Millar never quite got enough credit for is that they managed to create a situation for Superman in a TV show that could go on for a full decade. No comic book show had ever done that, and none has done it since. Smallville was also transformative for me — I was able to write the official companion guides for the series, and for that show I created KryptonSite — a website you surely have heard of, if you happen to be reading this.


When Tyler Hoechlin first showed up on Supergirl as Superman, he was a breath of fresh air. He was respectful and kind, yet still felt commanding. He seemed determined to do the right thing, and cared about others above all. While some movies that had come out in recent years gave us a darker Superman I couldn’t quite identify with myself (despite great casting in Henry Cavill), Hoechlin’s Superman felt like he was written for me to enjoy. That’s okay; we can enjoy what we want, and part of the joy of being a Superman fan is that if you’re not a fan of the current incarnation, another is surely around the corner. But I digress… I liked Tyler a lot. I didn’t feel as connected in some of the later crossovers, but that was more of a matter of not getting to spend a lot of time with him. The same went for Elizabeth Tulloch’s Lois Lane. She seemed great, but hadn’t had a whole lot to do… yet.

The first thing I can say about the Superman & Lois is that the new series fixes that, and the rapport and chemistry between the two actors is so strong.

I spent the opening minutes of the show with a big grin much like the one I had watching “The Adventures of Supergirl” episode where Tyler’s Superman was introduced. There was more than one time when I squealed at my TV at what I had seen. This is a full-on Superman TV show, with movie-quality visual effects. Smallville gave us a Superman who wasn’t Superman yet, so flights were few and far between and tights were even rarer, but here, we have Tyler Hoechlin flying around and doing things in ways the Lois & Clark technology and budget could have only dreamed of. And, yes, he looks much better in the new costume.

The show feels and looks different from anything we’ve seen before in the Arrowverse. (Yes, I still refuse to call it anything else.) The way it is shot, the way in which it is written… I almost wish it took place in its own little world, even though Crisis had recently smooshed so many worlds together. Superman & Lois is not burdened by the requirement of watching 25+ seasons of past Arrowverse shows to follow it; someone can come in from Day 1 and they will completely g



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