Beyond cultural realignment and a clear path to follow, the raw numbers in terms of new customers and incremental revenu

It’s impossible to say how much money Americans now give through direct digital donations such as these. Based on data that comes in part from Giving USA, Lucy Bernholz, the director of the Digital Civil Society Lab at Stanford University, estimates that informal online giving now totals in the billions of dollars — surging to new heights this year, even as formal 501(c)3s fought to keep their doors open.

All of these dynamics advantage category leading brick and mortar retailers for the simple reason that it requires a significant amount of technology infrastructure to manage an omnichannel experience — i.e. in store returns have complex impacts on the tax nexus. New customers who have formed new habits and repeated multiple times combined with structural semi-permanent advantages from increased online scale and BOPIS are why I am reasonably confident that these e-commerce gains will not be transitory.

Charity is inherent in human nature — even young children will share with others who have less. But the way people give, and to whom, often shifts in moments of crisis. Most of the world’s major religious traditions preach the spiritual virtue of giving “alms” — direct, often unmediated donations — to anyone in need of them. As early as the first century A.D., the Christian St. Paul lectured believers in Greece that charity ranked first among the Christian virtues they could practice.

“Part of growing up in a family of wealth is that you get educated financially to a level most people don’t,” he added. “And one thing I know is that charities and philanthropy, in general, are incredibly inefficient.”

According to data from Apptopia, a firm that tracks mobile services, new downloads of payment apps including Venmo, PayPal, Cash App, and Zelle grew 94% between March and October. And while analysts attribute some of that growth to larger changes in banking behavior, even Venmo, among the largest of the P2P payment apps, noted a surge in giving so significant that the company planned a spring marketing stunt around it called #venmoitforward.

Beyond acquiring millions of new customers, seeing their e-commerce business reach levels in 2020 that most brick and mortar retailers likely did not expect until 2025–2030, experiencing profoundly positive cultural shifts and aggressively resourcing e-commerce for the first time, these brick and mortar retailers will face a significantly less intense competitive environment when consumers do begin shopping online again. Generally speaking, their weakest, most leveraged, most discounting prone competitors have gone bankrupt during Covid. So in addition to a structurally improved e-commerce business that should persist post Covid they will have a stronger offline competitive position post Covid.

The movement toward direct giving could also threaten some parts of the charitable sector long-term, particularly given its current vulnerability. Americans’ trust in nonprofit organizations has been falling for years, and charitable giving almost always drops during economic crises.

There is a lot of concern from retail analysts about “comping the comp” in 2021 and for some retailers, consensus estimates embed a belief that July 2020 will be a 3–4 year high for quarterly EPS. While growth is obviously likely to slow in 2021 and might even be modestly negative in July 2021, the idea that July 2020 will be a 3–4 year high for quarterly EPS is at odds with the last 20 years of e-commerce history. I have looked at cohort curves for dozens of e-commerce companies across multiple categories and geographies and I can make one authoritative observation. Once you have a customers name, email address, mailing address and credit card data saved in an account they created and that customer has made two or more purchases, the odds that they continue to repeat are high. Even more so today with the ease of saving your password in Safari, Chrome and IOS or logging into an app with FaceID.

But direct digital giving comes with its own perils, both for donors and recipients: Scams are not uncommon on both sides, and the users most in need of direct help often don’t have the access or platform to attract it.

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inning of the article is a good example of the type of game I used as inspiration for the tests. A 2.5D adventure like game, third person view, which the player’s avatar is always positioned at the center of the canvas. The game environment is a labyrinth of 100x100 squares with lakes, creatures, and many trees and many walls.

Beyond scale based advertising efficiencies, physical costs also scale online — even more variable costs like shipping benefit from scale based on the UPS and Fedex rate cards. One of the more interesting observations from attending Jet.com board meetings was that almost any small e-commerce acquisition was accretive as Jet could immediately lower shipping costs for the acquired company by at least 10%. All this manifests in the fact that the revenue increases from e-commerce for category leading retailers have not been at the expense of profits — margins at BBY were flattish YoY and margins at WMT were up despite their mix shifting to more digital.

The in-store experience will also continue to evolve and likely be more informed by online learnings. We will all eventually pay by face in stores, there will be personalized marketing while we are in stores, technology should significantly reduce shrink, knowing what customers near stores are shopping for online for should eventually help optimize instore inventory and distribution systems will be optimized for e-commerce, BOPIS and in store return in addition to simply shopping in the store. The more data driven cultures that are emerging at these retailers will be helpful to all of this. Frequency also really matters online and omni-channel drives more frequency, which creates more data, which will drive a better customer experience both online and offline.

Beyond the convenience of shopping where you have saved your information, habits matter. And BOPIS has become a new habit for many consumers. Evidence from a 2009 study suggests that it takes 18 to 254 days to form a new habit with an average of 66 days. Covid has gone on long enough for consumers to form new habits in terms of both where they shop and how they shop. BOPIS will always be the cheapest same day delivery service because the consumer is effectively paying for the cost of the delivery by driving themselves to the store. Definitionally, category leading retailers have fairly optimal store locations for BOPIS and in-store returns. It would not surprise me to eventually see BOPIS hubs emerge at malls and shopping centers — “dark stores” — a reverse retail analog of dark kitchens. Shop many stores and pickup once. Will be interesting to see which companies can aggregate this experience.

Many communities have also long embraced a type of collective, non-hierarchical, two-way giving dubbed “mutual aid” by the 19th-century Russian anarchist Peter Kropotkin. When neighbors band together to raise money for an acquaintance who gets sick, or found a lending circle or benefit society, they are practicing a form of mutual aid — distinct from alms-giving, Kropotkin argued, because the horizontal structure of mutual aid grants the giver no spiritual or moral “superiority.”

“I don’t know if I went about doing it the right way,” said Jake, reflecting back on his spring Cash App spree. “But I felt like a traditional charitable avenue wouldn’t be fast enough or efficient enough, and I didn’t know if it was going to help the people I wanted to help.”