For the first ten years of my life, I lived with my parents, forming an attachment to my father. When my parents were to

Bill Bengen came out this year with a new publication stating that he is no longer sticking to the 4% rule. He said that it is based on a worst-case scenario where someone who would be retiring at the worst moment he could find in recent history. That would be in October of 1968 just as the market has peaked and when a period of high inflation was starting. Someone who retired then had to endure a 14-year long bear market and skyrocketing inflation. Historically, the average safe withdrawal rate would have been 7% and a point in time it had peaked at 13%.

Whether the correct withdrawal safe rate is 4% or 5% or even 7%, it is worth highlighting a common mistake we see in the FIRE community (Financial Independence Retire Early). Many that retired in their 30s or 40s expect their retirement savings to last forever by withdrawing 4% every year. This is simply wrong. Bill Bengen’s rule was set up for portfolio longevity of 30 years. A person that has retired in their 30s or 40s would live for another 50 or 60 years. History tells us that a portfolio made of 75% in stocks and 25% in bonds has a 15% chance of being exhausted after a period of 50–60 years of 4% withdrawal rate. This probability increases to 30–35% if a portfolio is made of 50%/50% in stocks/bonds. At 5% withdrawal rate, the same portfolio would have 60–65% probability of being exhausted in a period of 50–60 years. To be on the safe side and for high portfolio longevities or for those who are targeting to leave their wealth to their children, we would recommend withdrawal rates of 3.0–3.25%.

Culling bee colonies generally involves sealing off the hive and then pouring petrol into the hive, or drowning the bees with soapy water, or gassing them to death with carbon dioxide. Alternatively, some beekeepers will trap the bees in large industrial bin bags, which are then left in the sun to ensure the bees either suffocate to death or die due to the increasingly high temperatures in the bag. Sometimes beekeepers won’t cull the entire hive, but will instead de-populate a certain number of bees, or kill the queen.

The withdrawal rate in today’s time has to be influenced by how expensive or cheap the stock market is as well as the level of future inflation the market expects. In fact, the cheaper the stock market is the higher the expected returns it is expected to achieve and the higher the safe withdrawal rate is. Bill Bengen says that, based on today’s conditions, new retirees should be safe if they start with a withdrawal rate of no more than 5%. As stated above, this compares with an average of safe withdrawal of 7% given stocks and bonds are currently not cheap.

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In his first publication, Bill Bengen has analyzed the three largest stock-market declines since 1926 which have occured in 1929–1931, 1937–1941 and 1973–1974. During these periods, the stock market declined by 61%, 33% and 37% respectively. Bill has then run a scenario of a portfolio made of 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds and different withdrawal rates for someone who have retired every year since 1926. He concluded that an absolutely safe withdrawal rate of 3% ensures a portfolio longevity of 50 years and that for a portfolio longevity of 30 years, 4% is more adequate. There was no period in the history of the stock market where one would have exhausted their portfolio with a 4% withdrawal rate in less than 30 years. This was the birth of the 4% rule.

When the hives have been harvested for the honey, they are often culled for the winter, as it is cheaper to kill off the entire hive than it is to make sure they have food during the winter months. Bee farmers will also often cull hives who aren’t displaying the ‘right’ temperament.

Couple this with the fact that honey bees are selectively bred, meaning that the population gene pool is narrowed, and they are consequently at a significantly higher risk of diseases and large-scale die offs.

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fail. Everybody wants to succeed when performing an action because there is no reward for messing up. When failure does occur, we recognize that this is Not A Good Thing™ for us and immediately switch to damage control mode. This shows up as excuses, defensiveness, and finger-pointing. In our mortification, how do we stop making failure all about us and instead learn to expand our vision to see what other factors were at play?

From an ethical perspective, bees have a brain and nervous system, and have been shown to demonstrate emotions and even exhibit pessimism, which is a significant sign of intelligence.

However, because we take the honey, if the bees aren’t culled, they will be given a sugar syrup which is devoid of many of the essential aspects of the honey that the bees require to be healthy.

Whether the correct withdrawal safe rate is 4% or 5% or even 7%, it is worth highlighting a common mistake we see in the FIRE community (Financial Independence Retire Early). Many that retired in their 30s or 40s expect their retirement savings to last forever by withdrawing 4% every year. This is simply wrong. Bill Bengen’s rule was set up for portfolio longevity of 30 years. A person that has retired in their 30s or 40s would live for another 50 or 60 years. History tells us that a portfolio made of 75% in stocks and 25% in bonds has a 15% chance of being exhausted after a period of 50–60 years of 4% withdrawal rate. This probability increases to 30–35% if a portfolio is made of 50%/50% in stocks/bonds. At 5% withdrawal rate, the same portfolio would have 60–65% probability of being exhausted in a period of 50–60 years. To be on the safe side and for high portfolio longevities or for those who are targeting to leave their wealth to their children, we would recommend withdrawal rates of 3.0–3.25%.

Invented by Bill Bengen in 1994, a financial advisor in Southern California, the 4% withdrawal rule, or the ‘4% rule’ has become the holy grail of those seeking financial independence. It is a calculation that makes sure retirement savings never run out of money by budgeting to spend no more than 4% of the balance of the retirement savings balance in the first year. This calculation has been at the heart of the FIRE movement which stands for Financial Independence Retirement Early. 25 years after his initial publication, Bill Bengen, who has sold his financial planning practise and moved to Arizona, is recommending to change the rule.

The queen bee will often have either one or both of her wings clipped, which is done as a means of identifying the queen bee and also to prevent swarming, which is where a single bee colony will split into two or more distinct colonies, which is ‘bad for business’ as it reduces the honey production from that hive.

In the commercial honey industry there are numerous unethical practices that are carried out on bees, including instrumental insemination, where typically between 8 to 12 drones are crushed to death and have their semen extracted from them. The queen bee is then restrained and has the semen injected inside of her.