Herd immunity has been a buzzword since the pandemic began, but misunderstanding what herd immunity

Author : houseaso112

Publish Date : 2021-01-09 15:50:11

Q: What percentage of the population will need to get the vaccine to reach herd immunity?

Herd immunity has been a buzzword since the pandemic began, but misunderstanding what herd immunity is and how it can be achieved has been just as prevalent.

Briefly, herd immunity, or community immunity, refers to having enough people in a population who are immune to a specific disease that the disease has trouble spreading much in that population. Herd immunity is essential for protecting people who cannot be vaccinated because of their age or a medical condition, or who can’t mount an immune response even if they receive the vaccine. If enough people are immune, they won’t catch and transmit the disease to others, and the disease is unlikely to spread through enough people to infect one of the vulnerable folks.

But how much is “enough”? There isn’t a simple answer. It depends partly on how contagious a disease is, and that depends partly on people’s behavior, among other factors. Early in the pandemic, experts were estimating that if 60%–80% of the country developed immunity to Covid, that might be enough to substantially slow down transmission and gradually end the pandemic — but at a huge cost. It’s far preferable to achieve herd immunity with a vaccine. Then it depends not only on how contagious the disease is but also how effective the vaccine is and how long immunity lasts, which can vary by person and by vaccine (especially if there are several different vaccines in use).

So what’s the magic number for how many we need to vaccinate against Covid? It’s not really possible to say yet.

“We do not know for sure that herd immunity will be achieved solely with the response to the spike [protein] in the current crop of vaccines,” said Matthew Memoli, MD, director of the Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Clinical Studies Unit at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “It may require other forms of immunity currently offered only by getting infected or maybe in future vaccines, using other strategies. We do not really know what protection is offered from the vaccine, how long it lasts, which types of people it will not work for, if it prevents transmission, and so on.”

Q: What happens if too many people refuse to get the vaccine?

The ultimate goal in a nationwide — and global — vaccination campaign is to reach herd immunity, or community immunity, where those who cannot receive the vaccine are protected by the high level of immunity in everyone else. If too many people refuse to get the vaccine, we won’t reach herd immunity, and the disease will continue to spread through populations, though at a slower rate, Greyson said. “The vaccine will not have the kind of community protection we want, and, in particular, vulnerable people in the community, people with immunodeficiencies who can’t mount a response to the vaccine even if they get it, will not be protected,” she said.

But that’s more of a long-term concern if it ends up being a concern at all. In the beginning, vaccine refusal is not the biggest concern. Figuring out the logistics for everyone who wants a vaccine and ensuring the vaccine is equitably distributed across populations are top priorities. Once everyone who wants a vaccine has gotten one, we can focus more specifically on those who still have questions or concerns about the vaccine.

“Internationally, I think, in the end, even if there are stragglers in the beginning with hesitancy, people will accept a safe and effective vaccine,” Greyson said. The HPV vaccine is a good example of one that had a lot of hesitancy at first but which has now been widely embraced as people saw how safe and effective it is.

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