I mean, it doesn’t make sense to say 15 because it’s a rare incident or 7 unless it’s raining outside. And you’d be righ

Do you see how things can go wrong here? Our “natural” guess is based on the median which maximizes our probability of guessing right, however, the real number when that “event” occurs enough times will always approach the mean. In other words: The more similar tasks you do, the more that error accumulates!

³ And I would argue that the web (and specifically, the web browser) is what really did Windows in, breaking a lock-in that made the iPhone possible and brought the Mac back around.

Accomplishing goals usually doesn’t bring the euphoria we expect. If it does, the sensation never lasts too long. It leads to more pressure and expectations. After extraordinary success, some people even sink into an abyss of depression. They start abusing drugs and alcohol. They just don’t know what else to do with themselves. They chase the high they thought their enormous success would bring them.

Someone can know too much. They can be too talented. They’ll turn any project into an epic journey through the Himalayas. They don’t get tired of working. They don’t want to see the end. They’re not even perfectionists. They just love their work too much.

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he feature ready for QA, it looked better than I’d at least imagined, was more performant than we had expected, and it was backed by thousands of unit test assertions. This, in an aging flagship codebase with a complete lack of unit tests. Needless to say, all levels of management were pleased with the long-awaited feature.

Now all the math nerds (or data scientists/statisticians) reading right now must have already recognized that tiny graph in the previous meme as a right-skewed normal distribution. Let me enlarge, and clarify:

³ And I would argue that the web (and specifically, the web browser) is what really did Windows in, breaking a lock-in that made the iPhone possible and brought the Mac back around.

For every Charles Frazier, there’s hundreds of incredibly talented people who never learn how to finish their work and leave it alone. They never know when to say, “It’s good enough.”

¹ I led GV’s investment in Slack back in 2014 and was a board observer until the company went public via a direct listing 18 months ago. That said, I have had absolutely no inside knowledge about the company since that point. I have remained a shareholder and user, but that’s it, that’s the current bias.

We’re perfectly capable of accomplishing what we want. We’ve even done it. We’ve finished the ascent. But we refuse to plant the flag. We stay just below the summit, because we don’t want to climb down.

It’s a fun story. Most of us look at his career with a mix of awe and envy. But here’s the thing. You probably don’t have a friend who’s going to conduct a secret operation to show your unfinished project to their literary agent, or some angel investor. We have to advocate for ourselves.

You’ve probably heard of the Dunning-Kruger Effect, which explains why incompetent people think they’re so smart. It’s where we get that saying, “A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.”

The median still has a higher probability of being true than the mean, for that single task! If you were to guess the mode value which has the highest probability, you’d be even more wrong on a larger scale

It’s also not necessarily a foregone conclusion. Previous transitions between processor architectures have not always proceeded smoothly. The current effort to translate Intel-native Windows apps to run on ARM-based processors like Qualcomm’s Snapdragons has resulted in PCs that are sometimes sluggish even when running apps that have already been converted. Apple has extensive experience managing silicon transitions, including the migration from PowerPC processors to Intel ones in the mid-2000s. It’s nice to see that M1 Macs aren’t at a disadvantage when it comes to basic, essential computing tasks.

Even if you are really good at estimating the time a task will take, that doesn’t mean you will be good at estimating the time the project will take! Counter intuitively, you will be more wrong.