Therefore, this analysis will compare draft picks against the players that were taken after them. If those players performed better, then this indicates that better options were readily available. If those players performed worse, this means that the team made the best of what they had. To measure performance, I will use Win Shares.
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seeing desktop-class (really better than desktop class) numbers from an ARM CPU. From that point forward, my expectations for what this MacBook Air could handle recalibrated, anticipating that this system could handle whatever I threw at it.So Americans devised a very different kind of society. It didn’t have a social contract — a set of public institutions which manage public goods for people, healthcare and transport and finance and childcare and so on — it’s thinkers supposed it didn’t need one. It only had markets. If markets rewarded the rich — while crushing the middle class and poor — so much the better. Markets were the truest judges of the worth of a person. And if a market thought a person was worth a billion dollars, and another one nothing, that was because the first person must be a billion times better a person than the second.
All data was collected from Basketball Reference. Some adjustments were made around which teams draft picks were attributed to. While a player is officially listed under the team that drafted them, if they were traded on draft night or any time before the beginning of the next season, I attributed the draft pick to be under the team that they were traded to. Any trades after that point did not affect attribution.
So what was the inevitable result of a nation which didn’t learn history’s greatest lesson, which though poverty was good for people? Unsurprisingly, it was….poverty. The old kind: 40 million Americans live in poverty, while 50 million Mexicans do. And a new kind, too. The middle class imploded, and Americans began living lives right perched right at the edge of destruction. Less than $500 in emergency savings, having to choose between healthcare and educating their kids, a without retirement, stability, security, or safety of any kind. America never joined the modern world in understanding that poverty leads societies to ruin — and so it quickly became the rich world’s first poor country.
For example, an alpha of 1.0 would place 100% of the weight of the player drafted next. Under an alpha of 0.4, the following weights would be assigned to the subsequent draft positions:
The central idea behind this analysis is relatively simple. When judging teams drafting success, draft picks should be measured against the alternatives that were available in that draft position during that year. A team that drafted fifth overall shouldn’t be penalized because the team drafted fourth overall scored a great prospect — that player wasn’t available at fifth overall. Additionally, it doesn’t matter if a first overall pick performs weakly relative to the typically high expectations of a top draft pick — it only matters if better alternatives were on the table that year.
What happened next? Well, exactly what history suggested would. That imploding middle class, living lives of immense precarity, sought safety in the arms of religion, superstition, and myths, at first. And then in the arms of extremism. And finally, in the arms of a demagogue, leading a nationalist, proto-fascist movement. It was exactly what happened in the 1930s — and it still is.
So. What has anyone learned? Funnily, sadly, as far as I can see, not much. America never joined the modern world — that is why its people live such uniquely wretched lives, paying thousands for ambulance rides, which even people in Lahore or Lagos don’t. But the consequences weren’t just poverty. They were what poverty produces — nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, social collapse and implosion, as people, enraged, lost trust in society to be able to protect and shelter them. But no one has learned that lesson. Not America’s intellectuals, certainly. Not its politicians, leaders, thinkers. Not its people, either, unfortunately.
This equation does require one arbitrary choice: the alpha value (which must be between zero and one). A greater alpha places more emphasis on players drafted directly after while a lower value smooths the weighted average more evenly over a larger number of players.
Where E represents the expected Win Shares at draft position d, alpha represents the smoothing factor, and W represents the actual Win Shares achieved at draft position d 1 (the player taken directly after them). To initialize the function the 60th overall pick is assigned an Expected value of zero.
So in America, poverty wasn’t seen as a social bad or ill — it was seen as a necessary way to discipline, punish, and control those with a lack of virtue, a deficit of strength, to, by hitting them with its stick, to inculcate the virtues of hard work, temperance, industriousness, and above all, self-reliance. The problem, of course, was that the great lesson of history was that none of this was true — poverty didn’t lead to virtue. It only led to ruin.
But the question we still haven’t answered is why. Why did America never join the modern world? The answer goes something like this. Americans never learned the greatest lesson history taught. That poverty causes ruin.
You see, in America, poverty was seen — and still is — as a kind of just dessert. A form of deserved punishment, for being lazy, for being foolish, for being slow. For being, above all, weak — because only the strong should survive.
So here America is. Modernity’s first failed state. The rich nation which never cared to join the modern world, too busy believing that poverty would lead to virtue, not ruin. Now life is a perpetual, crushing, bruising battle, in which the stakes are life or death — especially during a pandemic, where 97% of deaths were needless — and so people take out their bitter despair and rage by putting infants on trial. History is teaching us the same lesson, all over again. Americans might not even learn it the second time around. But the world, looking on in bewilderment, should.
- A US Capitol police officer is being called a hero for singlehandedly steering a mob away from the Senate chambers during the deadly riots.Footage officer
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