Its going to be very intense Wisconsin will occupy familiar spot in 2022 epicenter of national

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia were the four closest states in the last presidential race.  

They’re also the only four states expected to have top-tier races for both governor and U.S. Senate in next year’s mid-terms.

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In short, “ground zero” in American politics in 2022 looks a lot like “ground zero” in 2020.

The Senate races in these battleground states will go a long way toward deciding control of that 50-50 chamber.

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And their contests for governor will be doubly important because they will decide who sets the voting rules in states most likely to determine the 2024 presidential race.

'A permanent campaign'

In Wisconsin, which has been on a perpetual battleground footing for most of two decades, the last election has quickly blended into the next one.

 

“There is no question there is more of a permanent campaign now,” said Democratic consultant Joe Zepecki.

Democrats started airing ads against Republican Senator Ron Johnson this past January — almost two years before his seat is on the ballot, even though Johnson is yet to decide whether to seek re-election.    

“We’re the most closely divided state in the union… Wisconsin is poised once again to become a national political obsession,” said state Democratic chair Ben Wikler, who noted on Twitter the other day that it was just “602 days until the midterms.”

 

His GOP counterpart, Republican state chair Andrew Hitt, said he has already met in Wisconsin with advisers to former President Donald Trump to strategize about the 2022 elections, which he expects to bring massive levels of political attention, money, and effort to the state.

“It’s going to be very intense,” said Hitt. “It’s going to be a game of inches here.”

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The Wisconsin elections for president in 2016, governor in 2018 and president in 2020 were each decided by fewer than 30,000 votes.

Questions hang over 2022 landscape

As they are in other top battlegrounds, strategists here are weighing a series of political questions looming over the mid-term that go beyond the familiar (and always important) fundamentals like the state of the economy and the president’s approval ratings:   

What will the new congressional and legislative districts look like in the first election after redistricting?

What will be the path of the pandemic and when will it allow a full return to in-person campaigning and organizing?

How will people cast their ballots, and will people who chose to vote by mail during the pandemic in 2020 continue to do so?

How will the voting laws, under bitter dispute by the parties, change in these states?

Can Trump still mobilize Republican voters from the sidelines? Will he still motivate Democrats to turn out against the GOP?

Not least, there’s the simple question of whom the major party nominees will be in the marquee statewide races that will dominate the campaign.

The jockeying begins

Democratic incumbent Tony Evers is expected to run for re-election in Wisconsin but hasn’t announced a decision. Former Lt. Gov Rebecca Kleefisch is among those expected to seek the GOP nomination for governor, but it’s unclear how big the GOP field will be.  

How will people cast their ballots, and will people who chose to vote by mail during the pandemic in 2020 continue to do so?

How will the voting laws, under bitter dispute by the parties, change in these states?

Can Trump still mobilize Republican voters from the sidelines? Will he still motivate Democrats to turn out against the GOP?

Not least, there’s the simple question of whom the major party nominees will be in the marquee statewide races that will dominate the campaign.

The jockeying begins

Democratic incumbent Tony Evers is expected to run for re-election in Wisconsin but hasn’t announced a decision. Former Lt. Gov Rebecca Kleefisch is among those expected to seek the GOP nomination for governor, but it’s unclear how big the GOP field will be.  

In the Senate race, two Democrats are already in — Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry – and others are expected to join.

But the biggest question mark is Johnson, the GOP incumbent who said in 2016 he’d only serve two terms but is weighing whether to seek a third.  (Johnson has ruled out a bid for governor).   

“I would not be surprised if we get into early 2022 before (Johnson) makes his decision,” said Hitt, the state GOP chair.

If Johnson actually waits that long to decide, it would leave the Senate field deeply unsettled for almost another year and put other would-be Republican Senate candidates on ice, forestalling them from launching their own campaigns.

It also could affect the GOP field in the governor’s race, since some Republicans eyeing a Senate bid might choose to run for governor if Johnson seeks a third term.

Johnson has said repeatedly he feels no urgency to decide.

“It’s not my decision to make. It’s Senator Johnson’s,” said Hitt. “The reality is he is going to make this decision on a time period that works for him… If you’re a candidate who wants to run, you’re going to want him to make his decision earlier (but) my job, whether there is a primary or not a primary, is to be neutral and get all boats rising.  I think he’s going to make his decision later than what some people think it would typically be.”  

 

That hasn’t stopped Democrats and liberal groups from launching an unusually early volley of ads against Johnson, who has become a national lightning rod and target of criticism over statements he has made about the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol and other subjects.

If he runs, this will make Johnson an especially big fundraising vehicle and spending target for Democrats nationally.   

“I think one thing we learned in the last cycle is there is no date that is too early to start getting the word out,” said Wikler of how early the campaign is heating up.   

The Democratic National Committee is airing ads in Milwaukee and other battleground markets around the country touting Biden's $1.9 billion stimulus plan.  

“It’s not my decision to make. It’s Senator Johnson’s,” said Hitt. “The reality is he is going to make this decision on a time period that works for him… If you’re a candidate who wants to run, you’re going to want him to make his decision earlier (but) my job, whether there is a primary or not a primary, is to be neutral and get all boats rising.  I think he’s going to make his decision later than what some people think it would typically be.”  

 

That hasn’t stopped Democrats and liberal groups from launching an unusually early volley of ads against Johnson, who has become a national lightning rod and target of criticism over statements he has made about the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol and other subjects.

If he runs, this will make Johnson an especially big fundraising vehicle and spending target for Democrats nationally.   

“I think one thing we learned in the last cycle is there is no date that is too early to start getting the word out,” said Wikler of how early the campaign is heating up.   

The Democratic National Committee is airing ads in Milwaukee and other battleground markets around the country touting Biden's $1.9 billion stimulus plan.  

A progressive issue advocacy group called Opportunity Wisconsin has put roughly a million dollars behind an ad campaign that started last month criticizing Johnson over his opposition to stimulus checks in the Covid relief plan.  

“We’re pushing elected officials to support policies to help Wisconsin families and workers,” said Meghan Roh, the group’s director. “We’ve seen Sen. Johnson as a big barrier to that.”  

“I think one thing we learned in the last cycle is there is no date that is too early to start getting the word out,” said Wikler of how early the campaign is heating up.   

The Democratic National Committee is airing ads in Milwaukee and other battleground markets around the country touting Biden's $1.9 billion stimulus plan.  

“It’s not my decision to make. It’s Senator Johnson’s,” said Hitt. “The reality is he is going to make this decision on a time period that works for him… If you’re a candidate who wants to run, you’re going to want him to make his decision earlier (but) my job, whether there is a primary or not a primary, is to be neutral and get all boats rising.  I think he’s going to make his decision later than what some people think it would typically be.”  

 

That hasn’t stopped Democrats and liberal groups from launching an unusually early volley of ads against Johnson, who has become a national lightning rod and target of criticism over statements he has made about the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol and other subjects.

If he runs, this will make Johnson an especially big fundraising vehicle and spending target for Democrats nationally.   

“I think one thing we learned in the last cycle is there is no date that is too early to start getting the word out,” said Wikler of how early the campaign is heating up.   

The Democratic National Committee is airing ads in Milwaukee and other battleground market