College Football Playoff predictions, odds: Expert picks for Alabama vs. Ohio State in national championship
Your betting guide with the best picks and overall plays for the College Football Playoff National Championship
The college football season that’s been longer for some and shorter for others comes to a conclusion Monday night in Miami Gardens, Florida, at Hard Rock Stadium. That’s where No. 1 Alabama will take on No. 3 Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship. It is not the first time these schools have met in this event, but it is the first time they will play for the national title.
In 2014, the first year of the playoff, No. 4 Ohio State upset No. 1 Alabama, 42-35, in the Sugar Bowl semifinal. The Buckeyes went on to beat Oregon the next week to win the national title. They haven’t been back to a title game since. Meanwhile, this will be Alabama’s fifth appearance in the six years since with the Crimson Tide looking to win their third crown since 2015.
So, what’s going to happen this time? Alabama is a sizable favorite based on the spread, and if we look at the total, we should expect a lot of points to be scored. Let’s take a look at all the available bets and figure out which ones are best.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Latest Odds: Alabama Crimson Tide -8
Spread (Alabama -8): The line opened with Alabama at -7.5 but has grown as the game approaches. Odds are this is due both to public action (casual, public bettors tend to like favorites) and the news of a possible postponement to the game. It was reported earlier in the week that Ohio State was dealing with COVID-19 issues that could leave it too short-handed to play Monday. The concerns were alleviated a bit by Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith saying the school intends to play as scheduled. Still, if the game is played Monday, we don’t know how it impacts the Ohio State roster.
Will the Buckeyes be missing a number of key starters? And if so, what positions will be affected? It’s vital information to have when handicapping a game, but it’s also important to remember that this isn’t the first time Ohio State has dealt with such issues. The Buckeyes had three games postponed this year due to COVID-19, and one of them (against Illinois) was due to an outbreak on their roster. They returned a week later against Michigan State, missing half their offensive line and other players, and won 52-12. A couple of weeks later, against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes were missing star players like receiver Chris Olave and linebacker Baron Browning. They won then, too, just not as convincingly.
Even last week against Clemson, it was Ohio State without a few players that still managed to win convincingly, 49-28. Still, even as good as Clemson may be, Alabama is a different case entirely. Assuming large chunks of the roster aren’t missing, this is an Ohio State team capable of giving Alabama problems. The Crimson Tide have been an absolute juggernaut all season. Their offense is led by three players who finished in the top five of Heisman Trophy voting with the winner in wide receiver DeVonta Smith as well as quarterback Mac Jones and running back Najee Harris. They also have one of the best offensive lines in the country, and oh yeah, they might get WR Jaylen Waddle back this week as well.
So, long story short, you aren’t going to stop the Alabama offense. It’s going to get at least 35 points, and your only hope is to contain as many big plays as possible. At the end of the day, you need to outscore Alabama, which is difficult to do not only because the offense is prolific but also because its defense has been terrific. It ranks 13th nationally in points allowed per game with 19, though more advanced defensive metrics like SP+ rank it fifth nationally.
If you look at how Alabama has performed this season, two games stand out as struggles. The first was back in October when Ole Miss put up 48 points, and the last was in the SEC Championship Game when Florida scored 46. Those are two offenses that can stretch the field vertically with their passing game. The Notre Dame offense Alabama faced last week cannot do that. This Ohio State offense — featuring QB Justin Fields and WRs Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson — can do exactly that.
Furthermore, Ohio State’s offense runs the ball more effectively than either of those teams. The emergence of Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon (636 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the last three games) has added another dimension to the Ohio State offense and takes a lot of the load off Justin Fields’ shoulders. The Buckeyes should be able to move the ball and score on this Alabama defense. This is why, with the information available now, the Buckeyes cover the spread. Pick: Ohio State +8
Total (75): If we look at both these teams, the over has been a smart bet for both this season. The over is 7-5 in Alabama’s 12 games, and it’s 4-2-1 in Ohio State’s seven. What’s more relevant to this discussion, however, is the points involved in those games.
There has been an average of 67.2 points scored in Alabama’s 12 games this season. Only three of Alabama’s games featured more than the 75 points in this total. There was its 52-24 win over Texas A&M, the 63-48 win over Ole Miss, and the 52-46 win over Florida. This would be the fourth time Alabama has played a game with a total in the 70s, and they’ve gone over in two of the three (Ole Miss, Florida). The third, against Arkansas, finished 15.5 points below the projected total.
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