Opinion - The 2021 Elections Will Shape Politics for Years

The 2021 elections, which is scheduled to happen in four states and a union territory, will have a huge impact on Indian politics. The polls in the five regions will shape the politics for years, which we can experience in 2024. In 2021, four states and a Union Territory are having elections starting from March 27. The four states are Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal. Puducherry is the only UT that will conduct polls this year. The results that are going to be declared on the 2nd of May will determine the balance of power between the central and the state governments.

The Significance of 2021 Elections

Every year, polls are held in some parts of India, but this year’s polls are of greater significance, which will shape Indian politics for many years. The polls are happening at a time when COVID-19 has changed the lifestyle and needs of most people. Around 16-crore citizens of the five regions have different expectations from their political leaders this time. Health facilities are the major aspects on which the parties will have to focus in order to gain trust from the people who are terrified due to pandemic situation.

Factors That Affect the Election Results

The state elections are fought on the issues and politics within that region. But still, the national problems cannot be ignored while considering the agenda of different parties. Many issues like the pandemic, farmer protests and state-specific leadership will play a vital role in deciding the results.

The fight between the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and regional parties will have a huge impact on the election in 2024. Out of all regions, the West Bengal election is going to witness the toughest fight between the Trinamool Congress Chief Mamata Banerjee and BJP. A win for Mamata Banerjee Congress party will mean a lot to her not only in that region but nationally. And if BJP gains more seats in Bengal, then it will make them stronger for the upcoming 2024 elections.

Polling Conditions

The conditions for polling this time are a lot different than they used to be earlier. We can sum up all these changes into three points. The first one is indeed about the pandemic situation due to COVID-19. The second is the decision that the central government has taken, which caused many farmers to protest in different states of the nation. And the third one is related to the interstate issues like the debate around the immigrants, Citizen Amendment Act, and the national register of citizens that brings Bangladesh into India’s domestic discourse.

The Political Future of the Nation

These polls are also important for the political parties, as they can shape their political future in the nation. For BJP, the best scenario is having an ally govern in Chennai, retaining power in Guwahati, and expanding their presence in the assembly of Thiruvananthapuram. This will make them a more confident centre that will pursue its political and ideological agenda with greater strength. On the other hand, Congress has a great chance of winning back Assam from the BJP. If the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led party gets back to rule in Tamil Nadu, it will be of great benefit for Congress as they have respectable junior status in government.  

The regional parties are also going to play a significant role in this year’s polls. The DMK, led under the guidance of M Karunanidhi, will have to come back after staying out of power for 10 years in the state.

The result of the election will be most affected based on the way the state government has handled the pandemic situation. It was hard for the government to satisfy all the people as this kind of situation was witnessed for the first time by all the political leaders. The parties who have gained more trust among the citizens will have a greater advantage in the upcoming election. Even though Lok Sabha elections are far away, each assembly election will greatly affect the position of each party in 2024. The pandemic faced by the nation has forced them to change the strategies according to which political parties set their propaganda.

These elections will have a crucial impact on the politics of the future and will help different smaller parties to take advantage of it. The people of the nation now also understand the importance of basic needs like health care, which will affect their decision while voting.