The most widespread and concerning mutated strain is the U.K. version called B.1.1.7. Its spike proteins,

Author : greensameblue

Publish Date : 2021-01-09 16:13:47

The most widespread and concerning mutated strain is the U.K. version called B.1.1.7. Its spike proteins,

Given Covid fatigue, you’re excused if you cut down on doomscrolling and tried to ignore the bad pandemic news as 2020 wound down. But welcome to 2021. Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths continue rising in the United States and elsewhere, vaccine rollouts are proceeding slower than hoped, and a post-holiday surge in cases looms.

Here are brief summaries of several important recent developments and ominous trends:

Coronavirus mutant strains are everywhere
As viruses routinely do, SARS-CoV-2 has been gathering mutations since its emergence a year ago. Most have proven benign and largely unimportant, but recently evolved strains, including in England and South Africa, are up to 70% more infectious, mounting evidence indicates.

The most widespread and concerning mutated strain is the U.K. version called B.1.1.7. Its spike proteins, the protrusions you’ve seen on countless illustrations, bind more readily with human cells, allowing it easier entry. The strain has been found in California, Colorado, Florida, New York, and 33 countries, and is expected to spread swiftly and widely.

So far, the mutated strains are not causing more severe symptoms in those who are infected, nor do they raise the risk of death in an infected person. Experts also say the relatively minor viral evolutions are not enough to render current vaccines less effective, and Covid-detecting tests should still work.

But the higher transmissibility means prevention efforts are more important than ever, both to stop new cases from spiraling and to help thwart further mutations. “The potential for virus mutation increases with the frequency of human and animal infections,” states the World Health Organization (WHO).

U.S. deaths could skyrocket
The ongoing high rate of new cases and rise in the U.S. Covid-19 hospitalizations guarantee an ongoing increase in deaths, above the current running average of 2,600 per day. But assuming the virus becomes more transmissible due to mutations, deaths could skyrocket, given a less-than-intuitive reality of math:

All other things being equal, a hypothetical 50% increase in the fatality rate of the virus would cause deaths to jump about 50% above current levels in a one-month period. No such scenario is expected.

But a 50% increase in transmission — apparently already happening — would spike the death toll more than six-fold in the same one-month period. (Adam Kucharski, a mathematician and epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, explains the complex calculations here.)

U.S. vaccine rollout is botched
After a disappointingly slow start, U.S. Covid-19 vaccinations ramped up in recent days to some half a million a day. But the lack of federal coordination, which Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, calls “inexcusable,” left the nation well shy of the White House goal of 20 million doses by the end of 2020.

Only about 4.2 million Americans have been vaccinated so far. In the meantime, debate continues over who should be inoculated first, centering around older people, essential workers, and health care workers. As one example of the poor rollout, many primary care doctors still have not been vaccinated and don’t know when they’ll get their turn. “Many are angry and frustrated and fed up, frankly,” Emily Maxson, chief medical officer at Aledade, a company that works with thousands of providers across 27 states, tells Statnews. “They’re absolutely downtrodden.”

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