And Somehow, Some Of The Biggest Myths About Covid-19 Are Still Sprea

And Somehow, Some Of The Biggest Myths About Covid-19 Are Still Spreading. Given The Global Situation, I Thought I’d Round Off The Year By Looking At Some Facts That Are Well-demonstrated About Covid-19, With References.
Enjoy.
Fact 1: Covid-19 Ifr Is High
The Death Rate Of Covid-19 Varies Substantially By Age. I And My Colleagues Demonstrated This In A Paper Aggregating Antibody Studies From Across The World. We Also Showed That, Even For Relatively Young People, Covid-19 Is Pretty Dangerous — At The Age Of 35, About 1 In 2,700 People Who Get Covid-19 Will Die Of The Disease.
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The Ifr Of Covid-19, By Age. Source: Us
Fact 2: Covid-19 Is More Lethal Than Influenza
Another Fact That We Have Known For Some Time Is That Covid-19 Is Far More Dangerous Than Influenza. For Younger People, Particularly Age 5–20, The Two Diseases Are Comparable (We Don’t Have Good Data On <5yo For Covid-19 So It’s Hard To Compare), But For Anyone Older Than This Covid-19 Is Far Worse.
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A Great Graphic Showing The Difference In Ifr Between Influenza And Covid-19 By Marc Bevand On Twitter.
Fact 3: Pcr Testing For Covid-19 Has A Very Low Rate Of False Positives
Yes, It’s True, False Positives Are Incredibly Rare When It Comes To Pcr Testing For Covid-19. They Definitely Happen, But Unless You Have Fewer Than 1 Case Per Million People In The Country It’s Almost Certain That True Positives Are Vastly More Common Than False Ones.
For Some Context, The Australian State Of Nsw Has An Outbreak Happening Right Now. We Ran 138,966 Tests And Found 94 Positives From 16/12–23/12. If Every One Of Those Positives Was A False Positive (Which Is...unlikely), The False Positive Rate Would Be 0.068%, Or 1 Per 1,500 Tests Run.
Yes, The ‘casedemic’ Is A Myth. Sorry.
Fact 4: Most Deaths Attributed To Covid-19 Were Caused By Covid-19 (At Least In The U.s. And Most Developed Nations)
This Is Something Of A Complex Fact, Because It Is Important To Say That Every Country Is Different, And So It’s Entirely Possible That In Some Places Covid-19 Deaths Are Wildly Misclassified.
That Being Said, There Is Abundant Evidence From The U.s. And Elsewhere In The Developed World That This Is Largely A Non-issue. If Anything, The Opposite — I.e. Not Counting All Deaths Caused By Covid-19 As Covid-19 Deaths — Is A Bigger Problem.
Fact 5: Covid-19 Is A Real Disease Caused By Sars-cov-2
Weird That This Actually Needs To Be Said, But There Are Conspiracists Out There Who Still Spread The Lie That Covid-19 Is A Hoax. It Isn’t.
Sigh, Yes, The 'covid Virus' Is Real
There Has Been Talk Out Thar In The Wildlands Of Twitter From People Who Don't Believe The Evidence That The Severe…
Virologydownunder.com
Fact 6: Evidence Published Thus Far Shows No Increase In Suicides Associated With Lockdowns
This Is Another Complex Point, But Basically People Were Sure That Lockdowns Would Cause Enormous Surges In The Suicide Rate. Thus Far, From Evidence Around The World, We Have Not Seen Such Increases. There Are Definitely Issues With Mental Health Associated With Lockdowns, And It’s Likely That The Pandemic Itself Will Have An Impact On Suicides, But So Far The Published Data Do Not Show Increases In Suicide Numbers Associated With Lockdowns.
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This Is, As They Say, Good News. Source: Pexels
Fact 7: The Impact Of Government Restrictions On Covid-19 Is Complex
This Should Come As No Surprise To Anyone, But The Impact Of Implementing Restrictions (Such As Lockdowns) To Prevent The Spread Of Covid-19 Is Not A Simple Calculation. As The International Monetary Fund Has Shown, In Some Cases There May Be A Net Benefit From Lockdowns. In Some Cases There May Be A Net Detriment. It Is Complex, And Very Hard To Pin Down To A Definite Good/bad, No Matter How Much People May Want It To Be Simple.
Fact 8: Covid-19 Can Be Spread Asymptomatically
Of Those Who Are Infected With Sars-cov-2, Best Evidence Indicates That About 20% Will Be Fully Asymptomatic During Their Entire Disease. These People Can Probably Spread The Virus, But To What Extent We Aren’t Entirely Sure. However, There Is Also Evidence That The Peak Of Infectiousness (When Someone Is Most Likely To Pass On The Disease) Is Right Around The Time That They Start Experiencing Symptoms. What This Means Is That Someone Who Is Currently Asymptomatic May Still Be Very Infectious, Especially If They Go On To Develop Symptoms Later. This Is Why Isolating Positive Cases Of Covid-19 Is So Important!
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Pictured: Symptoms, Probably. Source: Pexels
Fact 9: Pre-existing Immunity Because Of T-cells Is Not A Thing
A Very Popular Myth That Consistently Gets Brought Up By Denialists Is That We Are All Immune To Covid-19 Already Because Some People’s T-cells React To The Disease Without Them Being Infected. Rather Than Explain Why This Is Flawed, I’d Recommend You Read This Thread By Professor Crotty, The Immunologist Who Made The Initial Findings About T-cells That Got Everyone Excited In The First Place.

Fact 10: Most Places In The World Are Still Well Below Herd Immunity Thresholds
This Fact Is, Sadly, Becoming Somewhat Less True As Time Goes On, But Even With The Massive Outbreaks In The United States And Europe, The Number Of Infections Is Still Well Below The 60–70% — Or Even A Lower Threshold Of 40–50% — That We Would Need For The Pandemic To Substantially Falter. While Estimates Vary, It Is Likely That Even In The Us Less Than 20% Of The Population Had Been Infected By December Despite Record Hospitalization And Death Numbers.
Fact 11: Covid-19 Is Probably Less Lethal Now Than In March 2020 But It Is Very Hard To Know How Much
Is Covid-19 Less Likely To Kill You Now Than When The Disease First Emerged? Almost Certainly. We Have Better Treatments, Better Understanding Of The Disease, A Vaccine, Etc. How Much Less Lethal Is It? That Is An Incredibly Hard Question To Answer.
Fact 12: The Cycle Threshold Of Pcr Tests Is Largely Not An Issue For False Positives
Earlier This Year, Everyone Became Overnight Epidemiologists. With The Advent Of The Latest Conspiracy Theory — That All Covid-19 Pcr Positives Are False Positives — Everyone Became Overnight Virologists Instead. Here Is An Excellent Piece By Professor Ian Mackay Of The University Of Queensland On Why You Shouldn’t Worry About Cycle Threshold (Ct) Values And Pcr Tests For Covid-19: