#Top:-Covid-19: India in a delicate phase of its coronavirus battle as cases surge

In early February, doctors in Amravati district, about 70,000 kilometers (5,435 miles) from Mumbai, India's commercial capital, noticed a sudden increase in the number of people suffering from Kovid 1.

Life in this cotton-producing district of the western state of Maharashtra had returned to normal after the first wave of infection last summer. The ICUs of the 1,600-bed government hospital and half a dozen private hospitals were almost empty.

"But everything changed in February," says local journalist Anil Jadhav. "And now there's panic in the district."

Since the beginning of February, there have been more than 10,000 incidents in Amravati and more than 66 deaths in Kovid. More than 1,000 people were receiving treatment for the disease this week. The positivity rate is in an alarming double digit. Amravati and some other districts in Maharashtra have been closed again.

According to locals, the hotspots in the district, which has a population of 2.5 million, are mainly crowded in urban areas.

The civil surgeon of the district, Dr. Shyamsunder Nikam says, "We don't really know the reason for this increase. The worrying thing is that whole families are getting infected. This is a completely new trend," said District Civil Surgeon Dr. Shyam Sundar Nikam says.

Many neighboring districts have also witnessed a sharp rise in incidents, with Maharashtra registering 9,000 cases on Thursday, the largest single day in four months. It is said that 0 people died in one day. 

"People here weren't wearing masks. They were attending unregulated mass meetings like marriages and local election campaigns. There's a mix of free people, carriers aren't isolated, and testing and tracking are This has led to this situation, "Dr Sanjay Oak, a member of Covid's state task force, told the BBC.

Not just Maharashtra where cases have grown recently. Areas in the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Punjab have also reported increases. This comes at a time when much of India is reporting a sharp drop in cases - with daily infections for the county falling to less than 20,000 from a peak of more than 90,000 in September.

And this shakes scientists, disease modelers and epidemiologists. The most common reasons given for the tips in some states are the same as in Maharashtra - big weddings, people not wearing masks, reopening of cinemas, gyms and swimming pools, and big political demonstrations in states like West Bengal where elections are expected soon. 

Epidemiologist Dr Lalit Kant says a “false sense” of normalcy “has gripped the country”.

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"We can't afford our guard and we have to be cautious about opening mass meeting places. Testing, tracking and isolation should be massively re-expanded in all states - not we can't expect things to get worse. "

Dr. Kant adds that the increase in the number of cases in some states was expected because it followed the global pattern. "We have seen spikes in several countries after a two to three month break." 

Disease model expert Gautam Menon agrees the tip was expected.

"Modeling work and the results of the ZERO survey suggest that much of India should still be prone to the disease, so the revival of the sequence we are looking at is not surprising."

But why the revival in a small number of states, especially in Maharashtra?