One of the most important trials America has ever seen is about to start

We have a jury in the trial of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, charged with the May 2020 killing of George Floyd. Now we stand on the precipice of one of the most important trials this country has ever seen.

Anybody who tells you they know for sure what any jury will do has never tried a case. Juries are, after all, collections of human beings, and we humans are nothing if not mercurial. The uncertainty becomes even more pronounced in a case involving the police. Multiply it again when the case involves race.While there is no way to predict how the Chauvin jury ultimately will decide, to this point the pretrial criminal justice process has held up well. Judge Peter Cahill and the parties have done their jobs, setting the stage for the jurors to do theirs.Most importantly, Judge Cahill wisely denied multiple defense motions to move the case out of Hennepin County (where Minneapolis is located). Chauvin's defense team first tried this tack before jury selection began, and the judge denied it.

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Then, when news broke during jury selection that the city of Minneapolis had reached a civil settlement with Floyd's family for $27 million, the defense raised the issue again. The judge, again, refused to move the trial.
The defense argued that publicity around the case generally (and then the settlement, specifically) would compromise Chauvin's right to a fair jury trial in Hennepin County. Judge Cahill sensibly concluded that "I don't think there's any place in the state of Minnesota that has not been subjected to extreme amounts of publicity on this case."
A transfer of the case out of Hennepin County would have been disastrous both for the trial itself and for public faith in the trial's fundamental fairness. Any such transfer would have resulted in the case being tried in a different county than where the charged crime occurred, which in itself would raise questions about fairness.
And, critically, a transfer would ensure a less racially diverse jury pool.
Hennepin County is Minnesota's most populous county, and also has the highest percentage of African American residents, about 13.6%. Only one other Minnesota county has above 10% African American population, and 47 counties are below 1%. To move the trial would all but ensure a jury comprised of fewer African Americans than in Hennepin County, and a verdict from such a jury could lack legitimacy in the eyes of the general public.
As it turns out, the Chauvin jury is actually substantially more racially diverse than the population of Hennepin County itself. Of the 15 jurors (including three who will serve only as alternates), nine are White, four are Black and two are mixed race, according to the jurors' self-identifications in court.The jury's diversity is a good thing. Imagine the opposite scenario, where the Chauvin jury was substantially less racially diverse than Hennepin County and included only one, or even zero, Black jurors. The public would justifiably question the jury selection process, and an acquittal from such a jury would be difficult to accept as legitimate.
Now that the jury is seated, the prosecution will present its case first and must satisfy its burden to prove the charged crimes beyond a reasonable doubt. We've likely already seen Exhibit A for the prosecution: the bystander video of Chauvin pinning his body weight through his knee on Floyd's neck, while Floyd was handcuffed, for eight minutes and 46 seconds.
This video, on its own, should go far toward the prosecution's ultimate goal: establishing that Chauvin intentionally assaulted Floyd, resulting in his death (to prove the charged second-degree murder), acted with "depraved mind, without regard for human life" (to prove the charged third-degree murder) or acted negligently (to prove second-degree manslaughter). The jury ultimately can choose to convict or acquit Chauvin on all, some or none of these charges.
Expect also to hear from some of the bystander eyewitnesses, and the independent medical examiner hired by Floyd's family who concluded that Floyd's death was a homicide caused by "asphyxiation from sustained pressure." (The Hennepin County medical examiner who conducted the autopsy also found that the cause of death was homicide, but he determined that Floyd died not because of asphyxiation but rather because of, essentially, a heart attack brought on by Chauvin's actions: "cardiopulmonary arrest complicating law enforcement subdual, restraint, and neck compression").
We almost certainly will not hear from Chauvin or the other three charged former officers, all of whom can invoke their Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination to avoid testifyingAs straightforward as the prosecution's case might be at first glance -- almost a "just hit play on the tape" kind of case, as prosecutors sometimes say -- rest assured, Chauvin's defense will put up a fight.
First, expect the defense to argue that Chauvin did not cause Floyd's death. The defense may look to exploit the aforementioned differences in the opinions of medical examiners, though both conclude that Chauvin's actions contribute to or caused Floyd's death in some manner.
The defense also may argue that Floyd in fact died of a drug overdose. Toxicology reports show that Floyd had both methamphetamines and fentanyl in his blood at the time of his death. And Judge Cahill has ruled that the defense can offer limited evidence of a 2019 arrest during which Floyd purportedly swallowed drugs during a police encounter; the defense may argue that Floyd did the same when Chauvin encountered him in 2020.