Real Estate Industry

For a long time, about 60% of real estate development funds have come from banks, which has almost become a criticism of the real estate industry.

Although the 0.27 percentage point increase in interest rates cannot significantly increase the cost of investment, the central bank's first interest rate increase in nine years indicates that China has entered an interest rate rise cycle, which will obviously inhibit real estate investment that is extremely sensitive to interest rates.

The decrease in investment also heralds a decline in the supply of real estate in the future.

Centaline Real Estate Analysis Agency believes that whether housing prices can come down depends to a certain extent on who can "support" for a long time.

In other words, the trend of housing prices is the result of a game between developers and buyers.

House prices will not fall in the short term

Based on the current situation, the game between developers and home buyers seems to be tilted towards developers, that is, house prices do not have a basis for a short-term decline.

According to the analysis of Duan Hairui, a real estate analyst at Southwest Securities Co., Ltd., in the current real estate market, at the end of 2003, the average number of houses per household in my country was 0.83.

Regardless of the demand brought by the new urban population, the total housing volume is still insufficient.

The shortage of total amount has caused the current real estate market to be a seller’s market.

The contradiction between supply and demand cannot be fundamentally resolved in the short term.

Real estate developers can easily pass on the cost of interest rate hikes to buyers.

From this point of view, real estate prices will be short-term There is no basis for the decline.

Prior to this, macro-control and the New Land Deal shut out a group of people who love real estate, but the wealth effect of the real estate industry still attracts investors from all walks of life.

The series of effects brought about by interest rate hikes have weakened the "leverage" effect of the real estate industry, which has increased the financing costs of real estate companies, and the requirements for capital strength and capabilities have raised the barriers to entry for the real estate industry.

These will further reduce market supply.

The argument that raising interest rates will curb demand remains to be tested.

Zhang Yuanduan from a real estate research institution believes.

People's expectations will also affect demand.

If a certain commodity market is bullish, demand will increase; conversely, if a certain commodity market is bearish, demand will decrease.

"Rising interest rates will not deter consumers with purchasing power, and they will still buy a house."

The problem is that this demand will ultimately be constrained by the purchasing power of consumers.

When prices rise above the level of purchasing power, there will be a phenomenon of "prices but no market".

Therefore, the most fundamental factor that determines the price is the consumer's ability to pay-purchasing power.

Therefore, although house prices do not have the basis for falling in the short term, the room for rising is also limited.